trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $26 | $27 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $64 | −$7 | -11% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $43 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 08 | $162 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $54 | −$2 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $77 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $76 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Dec 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 15 | $64 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | Mar 04 | $30 | +$34 | +113% |
| Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 23 | $13 | +$17 | +132% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Feb 23 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Feb 21 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 17% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 11% | 0% | -11.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 11% | 0% | -11.4% |
| all | 20 | +11.8% | +1.2% | 55% | 10% | -3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +1.2% | 10% | -3.6% |
| 10% | -8.5% | 10% | -12.8% |
| 15% | -17.3% | 10% | -21.3% |
| 20% | -25.4% | 10% | -29.0% |