Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6916…7045 crypto 741 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate80%591W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,769
other 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.1% -4.0% 73% 52% -6.4%
≤30d 241 +3.6% -6.3% 83% 52% -6.4%
≤90d 741 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 48% -13.8%
all 741 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 48% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 22% -22.1%
15% -26.5% 7% -29.6%
20% -33.7% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses591 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)741 / 741
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 741 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$60 -199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$124 +618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$21 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$60 -199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$15 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $148 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records