Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6916…786a crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+11%) realized +$203 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days+$72
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$110
culture 3% +$2
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.8% -75.4% 25% 0% -40.6%
≤30d 16 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 31% +15.5%
≤90d 44 -14.7% -22.8% 48% 41% +6.4%
all 56 -24.8% -31.9% 45% 36% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 36% +0.5%
10% -38.4% 32% -9.1%
15% -44.4% 23% -17.9%
20% -49.8% 21% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage99d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Down 47¢ 1¢ $46 $1 −$45 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$14 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 08 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $38 +$62 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 23? May 27 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 23 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 12? Apr 13 $60 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 12 $23 +$26 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Apr 05 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3? Apr 04 $15 +$25 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Mar 30 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? Mar 29 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $12 +$28 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $32 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 48¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 46¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 92¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 20¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 32¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 77¢ $46 9d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 38¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 38¢ $6 11d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 38¢ $6 11d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 38¢ $24 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 11¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 12¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 12¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 12¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 12¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 72¢ $72 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 56¢ $58 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? BUY Down 36¢ $38 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 3¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 3¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 3¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 3¢ $1 24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? BUY No 5¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Up 78¢ $39 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 121 history records