Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6913…5c64 other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$46
sports 19% −$13
economics 9% −$6
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage135d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $579 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $317 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $349 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $335 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $730 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $359 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $415 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $255 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $145 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 31m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 3h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 4h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 7h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 19h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 21h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 34h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 38h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 46h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.48 · official $62.48 (match) · 1419 history records