Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

69 0x6912…9750 sports 23 markets active 19h ago coverage 141d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$3,724 (+90%) realized +$3,724 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$180per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days+$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+24.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+68.4%	+52.4%	67%	67%	+25.5%
≤30d	17	+44.4%	+30.6%	59%	59%	+14.5%
≤90d	19	+29.2%	+16.9%	53%	53%	-15.4%
all	22	+37.7%	+24.6%	59%	59%	+73.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.6%	59%	+73.9%
10%	+12.7%	59%	+57.3%
15%	+1.8%	55%	+42.1%
20%	-8.2%	50%	+28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +56% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$290 vs −$6 · ×52.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×75.56 per $1 lost it wins $75.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$3,724

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage141d

Avg bet$180

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$101	$101	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Jun 17	$4	+$8	+170%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Jun 15	$2	+$4	+226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	Jun 14	$2	+$3	+186%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	Jun 12	$10	+$3	+28%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Jun 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)	Jun 05	$2	+$4	+216%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	Jun 03	$4	+$5	+150%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	Jun 03	$8	+$4	+45%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	May 29	$3	−$3	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	May 28	$6	+$4	+66%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5	May 28	$2	+$5	+291%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	May 28	$6	+$4	+75%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	May 22	$3	−$3	-100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	May 21	$3	−$3	-98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	May 15	$7	−$7	-100%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 219.5	Mar 22	$18	−$18	-100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5	Jan 28	$686	+$539	+79%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)	Jan 28	$1,578	+$1,643	+104%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)	Jan 28	$1,677	+$1,548	+92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	29¢	$4	18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	29¢	$0	18h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$3	44h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$1	44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals	BUY San Diego Padres	43¢	$4	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	BUY Under	35¢	$2	4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	BUY Hurricanes	30¢	$2	5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$1	7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$5	7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$4	7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	57¢	$3	9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	57¢	$1	9d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)	BUY San Francisco Giants	31¢	$2	12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	69¢	$3	15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	69¢	$5	15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	40¢	$4	17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	BUY Minnesota Twins	24¢	$1	19d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	BUY Minnesota Twins	24¢	$2	19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	25¢	$2	21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	60¢	$1	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	60¢	$3	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	60¢	$1	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$0	24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$3	24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$3	24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	55¢	$3	26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	BUY Over	34¢	$3	27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$4	29d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	52¢	$0	33d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.95 · official $100.95 (match) · 85 history records