Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

69 0x6910…d9e8 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized +$7 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+45.6%	+31.7%	33%	33%	+6.8%
≤30d	6	+45.6%	+31.7%	33%	33%	+6.8%
≤90d	6	+45.6%	+31.7%	33%	33%	+6.8%
all	6	+45.6%	+31.7%	33%	33%	+6.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.7%	33%	+6.8%
10%	+19.1%	33%	-3.4%
15%	+7.6%	33%	-12.8%
20%	-2.9%	33%	-21.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$20	$16	−$4 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$20	$12	−$8 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$24	+456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$11	+218%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$5	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$5	59m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$20	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$20	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.53 · official $28.53 (match) · 16 history records