Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x690a…050f crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$39 (+10%) realized +$84 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$44
other 23% −$27
sports 13% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 59% +11.4%
≤30d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 59% +11.4%
≤90d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 59% +11.4%
all 29 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 59% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 59% +11.4%
10% -4.7% 52% +0.7%
15% -14.0% 41% -9.0%
20% -22.4% 41% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$38 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$27 +273%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.86 · official $9.67 (match) · 55 history records