Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6908…1b70 weather 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$39 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$31
tech 20% +$43
other 6% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 25% -2.7%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 25% -2.7%
≤90d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 25% -2.7%
all 16 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 25% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 25% -2.7%
10% -17.5% 12% -12.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -20.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 82¢ 84¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 84¢ 100¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $70 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$31 -58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $219 +$43 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $91 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $200 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.29 · official $192.29 (match) · 50 history records