Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6906…f45e weather 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized −$22 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%31W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$25
14 days+$37
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$40
other 11% −$1
crypto 10% −$19
tech 5% −$20
politics 5% $0
culture 5% −$19
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +37.9% +24.8% 86% 50% +4.5%
≤30d 32 +17.0% +5.9% 81% 44% +4.6%
≤90d 36 +12.7% +2.0% 81% 42% -4.2%
all 40 +7.8% -2.5% 78% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 40% -14.9%
10% -11.8% 20% -23.0%
15% -20.3% 15% -30.5%
20% -28.1% 10% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses31 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage222d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 86¢ 96¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$30 +568%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$9 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$11 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $2 $0 +17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1 $0 +29%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? Feb 01 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12AM ET Nov 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11PM ET Nov 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $24 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 68¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.68 · official $38.78 (match) · 98 history records