Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x6906…948e world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
sports 27% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 6% +$1
finance 4% +$1
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 41% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage317d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $148 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $191 −$12 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $219 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $232 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $282 +$9 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $111 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $120 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $6 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $19 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $9 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $91 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $91 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $582 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $621 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $564 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $505 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $63 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 10 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $99 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $99 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $58 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $58 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $38 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $66 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $90 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $98 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $99 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $60 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $85 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.74 · official $99.74 (match) · 247 history records