Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

69 0x6903…b2ed other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$90 (+10%) realized +$91 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$200

7 days+$183

14 days+$84

30 days+$84

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-2.1%	-11.4%	67%	67%	+32.1%
≤30d	21	-7.2%	-16.1%	62%	57%	+1.0%
≤90d	21	-7.2%	-16.1%	62%	57%	+1.0%
all	21	-7.2%	-16.1%	62%	57%	+1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.1%	57%	+1.0%
10%	-24.1%	48%	-8.6%
15%	-31.4%	33%	-17.5%
20%	-38.2%	19%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -17% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.48 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$146

Realized+$91

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage11d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$147	$146	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$127	+$128	+101%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$103	+$46	+45%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$102	+$25	+25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$12	−$12	-99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	Jun 20	$12	−$12	-98%
Morocco leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$43	+$7	+17%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw?	Jun 19	$24	+$6	+26%
United States to win the second half?	Jun 19	$56	−$43	-77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$15	+$9	+60%
United States leading at halftime?	Jun 19	$52	+$4	+8%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$15	+$3	+18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$13	−$13	-99%
Czechia leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$12	+$3	+23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-99%
France to win the second half?	Jun 16	$15	+$15	+101%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$8	+$8	+101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime?	Jun 15	$33	−$26	-77%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$19	−$19	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$8	+$3	+36%
Egypt leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$1	$0	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$255	4m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$149	10m
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$149	11m
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	49¢	$127	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	88¢	$127	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	68¢	$103	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$102	3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	61¢	$12	6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	39¢	$12	6d
Morocco leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	85¢	$43	6d
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	7d
United States to win the second half?	SELL Yes	12¢	$13	7d
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	79¢	$24	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$24	7d
United States to win the second half?	BUY Yes	52¢	$56	7d
United States leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$56	7d
United States leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	95¢	$17	7d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	96¢	$17	7d
United States leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	91¢	$35	7d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	81¢	$15	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$13	8d
Czechia leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	8d
Czechia leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	81¢	$12	8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$30	9d
France to win the second half?	BUY Yes	49¢	$15	10d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	98¢	$15	10d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	48¢	$8	10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	10¢	$8	10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	42¢	$33	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.79 · official $145.79 (match) · 39 history records