Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
69 0x6902…a81e crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$222 (-12%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$163
politics 14% −$74
other 3% −$17
sports 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 56% -14.2%
≤30d 9 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 56% -14.2%
≤90d 9 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 56% -14.2%
all 16 -21.8% -29.2% 44% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 38% -23.9%
10% -36.0% 31% -31.2%
15% -42.2% 31% -37.8%
20% -47.8% 19% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$75 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage413d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $380 −$329 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $361 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $255 +$98 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $115 +$150 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $82 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$44 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -96%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $123 −$21 -17%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Dec 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 23 $134 −$53 -39%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $41 +$5 +11%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $89 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $380 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $255 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $102 161d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $123 165d
Hornets vs. Cavaliers BUY Hornets 22¢ $40 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL No 0¢ $40 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 0¢ $24 185d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 0¢ $48 185d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $45 185d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 185d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL No 0¢ $41 185d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 0¢ $61 185d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? BUY No 8¢ $91 410d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 413d
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records