Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68fe…e9ab politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$5
other 17% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage81d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $59 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $56 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $56 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $56 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 6d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 11d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 11d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 11d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 17d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $58 17d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $59 24d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $59 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $59 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $59 27d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $59 27d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $59 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $59 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.28 · official $56.28 (match) · 187 history records