Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x68f8…12c8 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-4%) realized −$87 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%51W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$23
other 40% −$101
crypto 3% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +2.5% -7.3% 66% 61% -12.1%
≤30d 77 +2.5% -7.3% 66% 61% -12.1%
≤90d 77 +2.5% -7.3% 66% 61% -12.1%
all 77 +2.5% -7.3% 66% 61% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 61% -12.1%
10% -16.2% 40% -20.5%
15% -24.3% 21% -28.2%
20% -31.7% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses51 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)77 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals No 70¢ 70¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Grêmio Novorizontino 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) Jun 26 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $44 +$15 +33%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $38 −$38 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$3 +23%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $21 +$3 +14%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 +$18 +92%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $8 +$1 +18%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $31 +$12 +38%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$3 -58%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $15 +$3 +17%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $106 +$20 +19%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $13 +$2 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$9 +29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$18 +70%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 +$5 +24%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will RS Berkane vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 +$12 +147%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $17 +$4 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 +$11 +23%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $211 −$140 -66%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$3 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$3 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 +$12 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $65 +$6 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 55m
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 1h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 84¢ $30 3h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 4h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $18 4h
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino 22¢ $5 5h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $15 5h
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 92¢ $35 6h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 6h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 13h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 13h
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $8 14h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $15 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $4 14h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $14 14h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $15 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 14h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $21 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $15 14h
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.28 · official $254.28 (match) · 166 history records