Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68f7…7da2 sports 1026 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-2%) realized −$85 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%602W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$3
14 days−$24
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$73
tech 3% −$7
weather 2% −$1
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 437 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 47% -15.0%
≤90d 1023 -2.6% -11.8% 59% 51% -11.5%
all 1023 -2.6% -11.8% 59% 51% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 51% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 46% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 39% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 31% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses602 / 421
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1023 / 1026
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1023 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? No 30¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$14 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 −$1 -15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$10 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$12 +115%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -68%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$1 +50%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $3 2h
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 30¢ $2 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $1 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $1 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 63¢ $1 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $4 5h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $1 6h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $2 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $3 12h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 50¢ $1 12h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $2 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $7 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $2 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $1 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $1 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.62 · official $5.62 (match) · 3500 history records