Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

68 0x68f7…8aac other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$390 (+43%) realized −$60 · open +$450

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$1,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+43.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+43.7%
≤30d	1	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+43.7%
≤90d	1	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+43.7%
all	1	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+43.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.7%	100%	+43.7%
10%	+30.0%	100%	+30.0%
15%	+17.4%	100%	+17.4%
20%	+5.9%	100%	+5.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,333

Realized−$60

Unrealized+$450

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?	Yes	49¢	70¢	$779	$1,107	+$328 (+42%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?	Yes	27¢	62¢	$50	$114	+$64 (+128%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?	Yes	24¢	69¢	$30	$87	+$57 (+191%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?	Yes	73¢	73¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+0%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?	Yes	76¢	88¢	$4	$5	+$1 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026?	Jun 17	$11	+$7	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?	BUY Yes	50¢	$388	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?	BUY Yes	50¢	$158	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?	BUY Yes	48¢	$249	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?	BUY Yes	76¢	$4	3d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?	BUY Yes	73¢	$20	3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	62¢	$11	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,332.73 · official $1,332.12 (match) · 9 history records