trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +3.3% | -6.5% | 100% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 100% | 0% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +5.8% | -4.2% | 100% | 8% | -5.4% |
| all | 19 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 89% | 5% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 5% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 5% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 5% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | Yes | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 5? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 04 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 22 | $3 | +$1 | +46% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24? | Feb 09 | $4,705 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 09 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Jan 24 | $108 | +$2 | +2% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Jan 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 24? | Jan 24 | $7,195 | +$7 | +0% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | Jan 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |