Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68f0…a6e5 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 52L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$18
politics 35% −$26
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$81
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.2% +10.6% 17% 17% -7.2%
≤30d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 6% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 56 +2.2% -7.5% 21% 16% -7.9%
all 67 +1.6% -8.0% 22% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -8.7%
10% -16.8% 13% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 13% -25.4%
20% -32.2% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage551d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $6 +$9 +134%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $172 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $339 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $356 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $345 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $167 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $14 +$11 +83%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$19 +172%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 21h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 46h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $6 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.33 · official $148.33 (match) · 227 history records