Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
68 0x68f0…7443 crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$314 (+10%) realized +$338 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$241
14 days+$96
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$260
sports 35% −$52
crypto 21% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +43.0% +29.4% 32% 32% +19.4%
≤30d 70 +14.3% +3.4% 30% 30% -0.7%
≤90d 70 +14.3% +3.4% 30% 30% -0.7%
all 70 +14.3% +3.4% 30% 30% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 30% -0.7%
10% -6.5% 30% -10.2%
15% -15.5% 29% -18.9%
20% -23.8% 27% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$21 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 49
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions13
Markets (closed)70 / 85
History coverage37d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $88 $129 +$41 (+47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $83 $67 −$16 (-19%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 60¢ $66 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 91¢ 100¢ $52 $57 +$5 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 29¢ 30¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $43 $23 −$20 (-46%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-27%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$30 +168%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 +$70 +233%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$224 +1116%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 +$25 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $11 +$61 +544%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $67 −$6 -9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$26 +252%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $18 +$85 +474%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $49 +$66 +134%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $71 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $301 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $8 +$22 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $263 +$185 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 16¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 42¢ $31 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 91¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $18 6h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 29¢ $31 6h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY No 65¢ $66 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $32 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $30 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $35 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $27 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $0 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $0 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $1 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $1 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $23 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $18 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 43h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.08 · official $579.60 · 226 history records