Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68ef…89ca sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,258 (+24%) realized +$1,103 · open +$155
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$564
7 days−$282
14 days+$1,125
30 days+$1,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,824
other 19% −$458
world 3% −$153
crypto 2% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 41% -24.0%
≤30d 34 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 50% +10.9%
≤90d 34 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 50% +10.9%
all 34 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 50% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 50% +10.9%
10% -23.4% 50% +0.3%
15% -30.8% 41% -9.4%
20% -37.6% 35% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$89 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$1,103
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage12d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $150 $207 +$57 (+38%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 42¢ 82¢ $100 $196 +$96 (+96%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 55¢ 56¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$168 +164%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$134 +261%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$66 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$85 +84%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $269 +$179 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $102 +$79 +77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$62 +121%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$17 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$82 +81%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $203 +$81 +40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $307 −$173 -56%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $436 +$118 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $862 +$851 +99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $600 +$569 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 55¢ $102 1m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $152 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $168 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 94¢ $187 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $51 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $102 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 59¢ $269 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $152 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $153 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $102 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 SELL Under 100¢ $181 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 BUY Under 55¢ $102 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $51 7d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Haiti $10 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $143 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $51 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $113 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.25 · official $505.25 (match) · 72 history records