Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68ea…1a3e sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized +$26 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$181
world 13% −$13
other 12% −$126
politics 8% −$82
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 3 +306.7% +268.0% 67% 67% +188.4%
≤90d 8 +116.8% +96.1% 38% 38% -1.0%
all 34 -19.5% -27.2% 15% 15% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 15% -20.2%
10% -34.2% 15% -27.9%
15% -40.5% 15% -34.8%
20% -46.4% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$72 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage120d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $207 $202 −$4 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 38¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+39%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $26 $6 −$20 (-77%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $64 +$31 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $25 +$245 +972%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $922 −$907 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $21 −$20 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $201 +$832 +414%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 09 $20 −$19 -95%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $282 +$391 +138%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $176 −$107 -61%
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? Mar 05 $25 −$4 -16%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 05 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 05 $48 −$40 -83%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 05 $185 −$6 -3%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 05 $53 −$24 -45%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 05 $155 −$66 -42%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 04 $35 −$10 -29%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Mar 01 $50 −$35 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Pr Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes (Featherwei Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin (Catchweight, Pre Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO? Feb 28 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main C Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $100 +$212 +212%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Car Feb 21 $400 −$400 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $95 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $64 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $41 5h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $95 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $59 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $59 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 25h
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 48¢ $247 33d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 48¢ $244 33d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 47¢ $215 34d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 46¢ $29 34d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 46¢ $47 34d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 46¢ $140 34d
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 34d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 38d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 39d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 39d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.16 · official $294.16 · 115 history records