Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68e5…1457 other 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%89W / 16L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$46
sports 35% −$20
politics 13% −$12
weather 1% $0
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$7
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 34 +3.1% -6.7% 82% 3% -9.8%
all 105 +0.9% -8.7% 85% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$5,613
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses89 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)105 / 125
History coverage587d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,485 $1,484 −$1 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,281 $1,281 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,267 $1,266 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,092 $1,086 −$6 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $73 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? No 99¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 86¢ 75¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,923 −$4 -0%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 08 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 08 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 08 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,685 −$27 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,205 −$11 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Will "NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Jun 08 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri May 20 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 8? May 20 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April May 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 9? May 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 9? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 8? May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 8? May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 8? May 20 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 8? May 20 $4 $0 +5%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? May 20 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 8? May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 8? May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 8? May 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or higher on April 8? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 8? May 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 8? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 08 $2 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs LiXO eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Apr 08 $4 $0 +8%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $4 $0 +9%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Apr 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store Apr 08 $6 $0 +4%
Will Catarina Martins win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Mar 20 $5 $0 +2%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 20 $5 $0 +3%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Feb 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Feb 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship Feb 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Feb 04 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 07 $3 $0 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? Jan 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jan 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 07 $4 $0 +4%
Nara & Lucky divorce in 2025? Jan 07 $4 $0 +12%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Jan 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 07 $6 $0 +3%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jan 07 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $73 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $58 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $200 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $55 31m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $1,272 32m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $1,003 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $223 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $681 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1,923 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY No 98¢ $11 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026 BUY 77¢ $8 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $1,796 2h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $1,096 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $1,284 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $1,488 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $1,802 2h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $84 11d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun SELL No 94¢ $96 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $879 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $109 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $4,365 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,613.04 · official $5,621.04 (match) · 351 history records