Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68e3…109b crypto 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,429 (-8%) realized −$3,491 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%63W / 86L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,020
7 days−$1,833
14 days−$2,791
30 days−$5,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$4,096
sports 17% −$1,003
other 3% −$249
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -17.9% -25.7% 43% 43% -26.8%
≤30d 126 -23.7% -31.0% 43% 42% -21.7%
≤90d 149 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 41% -21.7%
all 149 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 41% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 41% -21.7%
10% -38.1% 38% -29.2%
15% -44.1% 33% -36.0%
20% -49.6% 30% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -30% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$207 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized−$3,491
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses63 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage36d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Over 15¢ 23¢ $300 $453 +$153 (+51%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 13¢ 9¢ $284 $193 −$91 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $310 −$299 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $309 +$271 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $404 +$93 +23%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $511 +$495 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $191 −$185 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $247 −$238 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $155 +$157 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $150 +$131 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$184 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $97 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $224 −$217 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$87 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$59 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$73 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $240 −$232 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $201 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $254 −$27 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$156 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $246 −$198 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $338 −$327 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $436 +$390 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$181 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$207 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$185 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $173 +$147 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$205 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $611 −$600 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $99 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $799 −$774 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,032 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,115 −$80 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 13¢ $291 50m
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $308 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $387 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $497 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $181 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $181 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1,006 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $191 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $247 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $312 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $150 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $511 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $258 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $181 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $97 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $183 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.24 · official $646.24 (match) · 449 history records