Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x68e2…02ab other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$209 (+39%) realized +$212 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$230
14 days+$212
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$110
sports 10% +$99
crypto 3% −$10
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +76.4% +59.6% 63% 63% +64.4%
≤30d 37 +33.1% +20.5% 46% 43% +30.6%
≤90d 37 +33.1% +20.5% 46% 43% +30.6%
all 37 +33.1% +20.5% 46% 43% +30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 43% +30.6%
10% +8.9% 43% +18.1%
15% -1.6% 41% +6.7%
20% -11.2% 35% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage36d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 57¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$66 +324%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$40 +388%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +185%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$42 +411%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +9%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 7d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.81 · official $66.47 (match) · 64 history records