Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
68 0x68e1…b2fa sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,408 (+8%) realized +$861 · open +$547
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%51W / 30L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$395
7 days+$1,286
14 days+$1,286
30 days+$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +10.6% +0.1% 62% 58% -2.7%
≤30d 79 +10.6% +0.1% 62% 58% -2.7%
≤90d 81 +12.6% +1.8% 63% 59% -2.6%
all 81 +12.6% +1.8% 63% 59% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 59% -2.6%
10% -7.9% 53% -11.9%
15% -16.8% 47% -20.5%
20% -25.0% 32% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +30% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$184 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,160
Realized+$861
Unrealized+$547
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses51 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage38d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 30¢ 56¢ $512 $940 +$428 (+84%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 46¢ 100¢ $102 $220 +$118 (+116%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $491 +$21 +4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $289 +$211 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $2 +$5 +197%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $7 +$3 +40%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $539 +$480 +89%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $696 −$690 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $268 −$262 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $393 +$107 +27%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $538 −$19 -4%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $712 +$263 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $23 +$11 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $247 +$118 +48%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $21 +$4 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $567 +$433 +76%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $82 +$20 +24%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $422 +$78 +18%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $33 +$23 +70%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $269 −$265 -99%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $336 +$313 +93%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $2 +$3 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $12 +$27 +226%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $550 −$541 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $194 −$190 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $168 −$165 -98%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $12 +$9 +79%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $7 +$3 +48%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $599 +$581 +97%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $41 +$74 +180%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $39 +$48 +124%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $132 −$70 -53%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $12 +$8 +73%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $552 −$540 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $487 +$513 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 56¢ $256 8m
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 22¢ $235 38m
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 17¢ $30 40m
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 89¢ $20 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 46¢ $103 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 96¢ $491 15h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 30¢ $306 23h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 57¢ $289 24h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 33¢ $2 44h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 71¢ $7 45h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 17¢ $17 45h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 82¢ $8 46h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 39¢ $2 47h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 36¢ $5 2d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 69¢ $696 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 51¢ $528 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 46¢ $12 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 24¢ $245 2d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 20¢ $102 2d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 78¢ $393 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 79¢ $23 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 72¢ $98 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 27¢ $143 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $23 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 54¢ $274 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $23 2d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 65¢ $637 2d
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 85¢ $21 2d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 73¢ $74 2d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $247 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,160.00 · official $1,160.00 (match) · 172 history records