Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x68e1…0da0 other 18 markets active 13h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
tech 20% $0
politics 21% +$1
crypto 15% $0
sports 7% $0
other 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 2 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 3 -34.6% -40.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 17 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage446d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $12 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 22 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $16 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $34 6d
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $12 353d
Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 364d
Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 388d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 402d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 417d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 417d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 417d
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? BUY No 97¢ $12 417d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 417d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 417d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 417d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 417d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $10 418d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? SELL No 98¢ $2 418d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $12 420d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 420d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 420d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records