Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68d7…a6fd
world · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$57 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$94
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage467d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $147 −$9 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $117 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $280 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $107 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $104 −$4 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $254 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $213 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $24 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $69 −$28 -41%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $33 −$8 -26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $162 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $141 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $161 −$21 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $99 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $104 +$20 +19%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $484 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $134 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $180 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $158 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $515 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $154 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $152 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $160 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $298 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $155 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $141 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $155 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $295 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $141 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% −$41
other 23% −$5
politics 17% $0
sports 15% −$5
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% +$3
finance 2% −$8
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $69 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $95 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $3 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $52 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $49 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $101 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $101 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $86 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $46 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $5 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $112 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $117 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $59 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $117 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $117 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $106 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $106 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $107 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $107 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $60 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $63 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 23 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 4% -11.2%
≤90d 72 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 1% -10.1%
all 90 -2.8% -12.1% 36% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.64 · official $92.65 (match) · 380 history records