Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68d7…9e04 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$332 (-6%) realized −$334 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%38W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$439
14 days−$392
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$23
other 20% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.0% -24.0% 77% 10% -18.5%
≤30d 44 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 14% -16.2%
≤90d 45 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 16% -14.8%
all 45 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 16% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 16% -14.8%
10% -19.4% 4% -22.9%
15% -27.2% 4% -30.4%
20% -34.3% 4% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$96 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses38 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage113d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) United States 95¢ 100¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $91 +$5 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $167 +$14 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $157 +$10 +6%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$8 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $143 +$7 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $141 +$2 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $133 +$8 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $105 +$8 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $108 +$7 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $97 +$6 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $179 +$15 +8%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $171 +$9 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $170 +$8 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $199 +$8 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $128 +$15 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $243 +$15 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $219 +$23 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $217 −$217 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $209 +$8 +4%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$9 -45%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $188 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $209 +$6 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $189 +$20 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $118 +$5 +4%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $109 +$7 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $109 +$9 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 +$7 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $63 +$5 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $83 +$3 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$5 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $61 +$4 +7%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $35 +$3 +7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $33 +$2 +6%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $112 +$77 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $91 11h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $90 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $167 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $167 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $157 21h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $158 21h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $150 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $143 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $141 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $141 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $133 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $308 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $113 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $113 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $114 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $115 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $105 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $108 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $100 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $103 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $97 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $97 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $179 5d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $179 5d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.15 · official $392.15 (match) · 209 history records