Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68d3…55b0 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,427 (+4%) realized +$3,751 · open −$324
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%32W / 19L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,146per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$21,575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$2,212
14 days+$1,994
30 days+$2,184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$237
other 36% +$2,079
sports 6% +$2,249
finance 5% +$347
tech 2% +$143
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.4% +7.1% 71% 29% +12.2%
≤30d 30 -3.9% -13.1% 67% 33% -5.2%
≤90d 48 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 38% -0.6%
all 51 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 35% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -1.3%
10% -20.6% 20% -10.8%
15% -28.3% 14% -19.4%
20% -35.3% 10% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,807) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$233 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$21,575
Realized+$3,751
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses32 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions20
Markets (closed)51 / 74
History coverage105d
Avg bet$1,146
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $2,500 $2,334 −$166 (-7%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 81¢ 60¢ $3,000 $2,234 −$766 (-26%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,097 +$97 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 91¢ $2,000 $2,007 +$7 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,503 +$3 (+0%)
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,501 +$1 (+0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,322 +$322 (+32%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,158 +$158 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,032 +$32 (+3%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,028 +$28 (+3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $685 $823 +$138 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $385 $665 +$280 (+73%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $700 $595 −$105 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $459 $444 −$15 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $420 $307 −$113 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $254 −$46 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $224 −$126 (-36%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,002 +$86 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2,000 +$237 +12%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg Jun 23 $1,020 +$1,951 +191%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,003 +$89 +9%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3,000 −$47 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,000 +$124 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 −$259 -51%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $1,000 +$158 +16%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,600 +$188 +12%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $4,008 +$290 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,000 −$6 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $4,307 +$144 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $2,006 +$143 +7%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $1,000 +$264 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $3,000 +$232 +8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Aaron Ramsdale be included in England's official 2026 World Cup s Jun 02 $281 +$18 +7%
Will Harry Maguire be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq Jun 02 $1,807 +$267 +15%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $1,303 −$725 -56%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $802 +$78 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,000 +$354 +18%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 30 $510 −$500 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,013 −$198 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $300 +$88 +29%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,000 −$427 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $4,000 +$456 +11%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $1,500 +$572 +38%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $1,015 +$1,021 +101%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 22 $5,007 +$223 +4%
Will Kobbie Mainoo be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq May 22 $601 +$49 +8%
Will James Trafford be included in England's official 2026 World Cup s May 22 $702 +$90 +13%
Will Noni Madueke be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 22 $33 +$2 +8%
Will Djed Spence be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa May 21 $401 −$400 -100%
Will Maximilian Beier be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup May 21 $180 +$6 +3%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 15 $1,907 +$221 +12%
Will FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara end in a draw? May 02 $16 +$27 +166%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $20 +$43 +216%
Will Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norwich City FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $512 +$1,357 +265%
Will FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Mar 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $1,000 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $1,000 21h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $1,500 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,237 24h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,099 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Korea Repu BUY 19¢ $277 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg BUY 34¢ $1,020 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,009 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $1,500 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1,504 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $100 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2,019 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on BUY 26¢ $511 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $203 4d
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2,003 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mor BUY 22¢ $215 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2,953 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,124 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3,000 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 20¢ $250 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $509 8d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1,158 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2,000 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 72¢ $1,000 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 9d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1,003 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1,600 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $2,000 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,575.21 · official $21,597.03 (match) · 146 history records