Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68d1…3c4d
tech · 273 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$26,010 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,343 · open +$641
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,839
Realized+$25,343
Unrealized+$641
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses228 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)263 / 273
History coverage400d
Avg bet$1,244
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 11 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$389
14 days+$985
30 days+$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,951 $4,073 +$123 (+3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,001 $1,996 −$4 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $1,186 $1,464 +$278 (+23%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 93¢ $1,213 $1,349 +$136 (+11%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $596 $592 −$4 (-1%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $437 $470 +$33 (+8%)
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $317 $385 +$69 (+22%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $381 $384 +$3 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 81¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? No 64¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,607 +$187 +12%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $538 +$10 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,493 +$20 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,121 +$40 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $609 +$27 +4%
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $51 +$11 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1,693 +$67 +4%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1,775 +$11 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $3,193 +$114 +4%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1,938 +$46 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $36 −$35 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $680 +$20 +3%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $789 +$4 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1,530 +$62 +4%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3,498 +$511 +15%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $82 +$18 +22%
Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? May 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? May 21 $156 +$2 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 20 $742 +$15 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026? May 20 $330 +$7 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $1,504 −$321 -21%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $270 −$51 -19%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $711 +$5 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 19 $1,465 +$65 +4%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $31 −$23 -74%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $675 +$16 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? May 18 $654 +$1 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 15 $544 +$30 +6%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? May 10 $117 +$1 +1%
Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 08 $457 +$10 +2%
Will gemini-3-pro be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $1,100 +$147 +13%
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $708 +$130 +18%
Will gpt-5.4-high be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will muse-spark be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will claude-opus-4-7 be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will a new MAI model be released by June 30, 2026? May 01 $76 +$9 +12%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $4,244 −$1,592 -38%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 01 $1,275 +$27 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,742 +$61 +4%
VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $425 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 58% +$29,174
other 37% −$3,387
politics 5% +$20
world 1% +$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $757 3h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $497 5h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $405 5h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 6h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 16h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,810 16h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $596 16h
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $62 22h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? BUY No 98¢ $330 24h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 99¢ $1,196 27h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $217 31h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $125 31h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $148 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $75 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $68 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 36h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 37h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $71 37h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 37h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? BUY No 86¢ $6 37h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $180 39h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $182 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 96¢ $609 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 96¢ $1,121 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 98¢ $98 39h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? BUY No 98¢ $202 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 97¢ $199 39h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $135 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.3% -24.2% 80% 13% -7.1%
≤30d 35 -8.3% -17.0% 83% 11% -7.1%
≤90d 101 +4.1% -5.8% 86% 23% -4.7%
all 263 +12.5% +1.8% 87% 30% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 30% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 16% -11.9%
15% -16.9% 10% -20.4%
20% -25.0% 7% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,839.14 · official $10,839.14 (match) · 3500 history records