Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68d1…f166 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$764 (-11%) realized −$764 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%58W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$117
14 days−$120
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,378
other 18% +$404
world 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 33% -31.0%
≤30d 22 -23.8% -31.1% 32% 32% -35.8%
≤90d 181 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 32% -21.6%
all 184 -7.4% -16.2% 32% 32% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 32% -22.2%
10% -24.2% 30% -29.6%
15% -31.5% 30% -36.4%
20% -38.3% 30% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$34 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses58 / 126
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage94d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $31 +$61 +198%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$85 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$27 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$26 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $30 +$28 +93%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $16 +$60 +384%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5 May 18 $30 +$29 +97%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5 May 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $41 −$20 -49%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5 May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $30 +$26 +84%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 15 $31 +$66 +216%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score May 10 $40 +$22 +54%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 10 $51 +$30 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$65 +64%
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $30 −$30 -98%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 May 10 $41 −$40 -99%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5 May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 10 $30 +$35 +114%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 May 09 $20 −$1 -6%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 09 $51 −$2 -4%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $61 +$35 +57%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 7d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 26d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 26d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 26d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 26d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 26d
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 26d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 26d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 26d
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 26d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 26d
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 27d
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 27d
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 27d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records