Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68cf…9b9c
weather · 1435 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$318 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$311 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses480 / 949
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1429 / 1435
History coverage75d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1429 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$29
14 days−$36
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 39¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$5 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $1 +$3 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$315
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% −$4
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -41.3% -46.8% 20% 20% -45.7%
≤30d 186 -20.6% -28.2% 30% 30% -25.0%
≤90d 1429 -12.2% -20.6% 34% 31% -19.0%
all 1429 -12.2% -20.6% 34% 31% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 31% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -26.8%
15% -35.1% 26% -33.9%
20% -41.5% 24% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 3500 history records