Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68cc…d976 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,247 (+7%) realized +$1,200 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%69W / 49L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days+$1,150
14 days+$502
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$1,961
sports 37% −$844
world 1% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +36.5% +23.5% 75% 69% +12.2%
≤30d 23 +11.6% +1.0% 61% 57% -3.0%
≤90d 47 +19.1% +7.7% 66% 64% +2.7%
all 118 +3.5% -6.4% 58% 58% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 58% -3.4%
10% -15.3% 58% -12.7%
15% -23.5% 58% -21.1%
20% -31.0% 49% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$142 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$887
Realized+$1,200
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses69 / 49
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage182d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 58¢ 62¢ $420 $445 +$25 (+6%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 58¢ 62¢ $420 $442 +$22 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $356 −$350 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $564 −$558 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $447 +$489 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $447 −$440 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $334 +$466 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $233 +$265 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $213 +$111 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $256 −$253 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $234 +$134 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $195 +$85 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $179 +$90 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $180 −$178 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $216 −$214 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $260 −$257 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $254 +$218 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $226 +$247 +109%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $198 +$164 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $174 +$144 +83%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $208 −$206 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $191 +$100 +52%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 10 $144 +$89 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $144 +$110 +76%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $144 +$82 +57%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $142 +$149 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $142 −$140 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $172 −$170 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $138 +$78 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $138 +$124 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $124 +$87 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $112 +$64 +57%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $100 +$129 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $134 −$132 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $80 +$59 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $88 +$70 +79%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 19 $122 +$86 +70%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $122 −$121 -99%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $138 +$81 +59%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $166 −$166 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $425 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $425 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $304 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $356 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $564 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $447 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $447 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $508 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $334 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $233 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $213 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $256 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $235 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $234 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $233 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $195 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $102 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $179 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $180 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $216 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $260 9d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $254 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 27d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $254 27d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $226 34d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $198 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $174 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $208 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.03 · official $887.03 (match) · 201 history records