Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x68cc…6737 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%45W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$5
crypto 11% +$3
politics 2% $0
sports 1% −$3
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 60 -0.0% -9.6% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses45 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage547d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $55 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 03 $51 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 04 $6 $0 +2%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $36 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $22 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $5,265 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 09 $12 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 09 $15 +$1 +9%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 09 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 16 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 62d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 99¢ $55 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 123d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $43 183d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $35 243d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 274d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 274d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 274d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 396d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.82 · official $65.82 (match) · 128 history records