Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68c9…c73b other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$155 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%64W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$436
7 days+$863
14 days+$702
30 days+$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$369
sports 32% +$671
world 9% +$251
culture 4% −$375
politics 3% −$299
weather 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.8% -6.9% 44% 44% +11.3%
≤30d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 41% +5.9%
≤90d 96 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 41% +5.6%
all 159 -5.2% -14.3% 40% 38% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 38% -8.4%
10% -22.5% 36% -17.2%
15% -30.0% 34% -25.2%
20% -36.8% 31% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$42 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$1,128
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses64 / 95
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions19
Markets (closed)159 / 178
History coverage255d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 20¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$9 -54%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$30 +58%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 31h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,128.21 · official $1,128.21 (match) · 364 history records