Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c8…b100 world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+2%) realized +$74 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$13
14 days+$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$14
other 15% −$18
crypto 13% +$13
sports 1% −$14
finance 1% −$10
politics 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 31% -10.5%
≤30d 35 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 37% -9.9%
≤90d 61 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 30% -9.3%
all 61 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 30% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 30% -9.3%
10% -19.0% 20% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 18% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage54d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 35¢ 26¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $188 −$57 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $250 +$53 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $170 +$45 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$17 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $150 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$35 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$24 +123%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $25 +$10 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $18 +$9 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$6 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $111 −$14 -13%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $330 +$38 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $21 +$10 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $228 −$16 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 −$10 -52%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $20 +$9 +45%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $34 −$14 -42%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 07 $25 +$2 +8%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $20 −$7 -34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $5 +$17 +366%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1? May 01 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30? May 01 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 33m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 98¢ $59 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $50 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $20 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $8 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $11 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 74¢ $10 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $15 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $4 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $6 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $319 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $69 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $76 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $124 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $149 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $57 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 79¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 60¢ $69 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.63 · official $49.63 (match) · 253 history records