Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c8…1736 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$302 (+6%) realized +$455 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%68W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$158
sports 13% −$81
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +7.4% -2.8% 51% 47% -8.3%
≤30d 85 +7.4% -2.8% 51% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 147 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 40% -11.5%
all 147 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 40% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 40% -11.5%
10% -22.3% 35% -20.0%
15% -29.8% 30% -27.7%
20% -36.7% 22% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized+$455
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses68 / 79
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage79d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 35¢ 80¢ $200 $459 +$259 (+130%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 88¢ 20¢ $200 $47 −$153 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$65 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$160 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$200 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $305 −$67 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $309 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $204 −$55 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $209 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $259 −$125 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $129 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$67 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$20 +117%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $20 −$16 -79%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $9 +$8 +90%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $180 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $367 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 46m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Murphy Cassone 35¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.87 · official $537.38 · 342 history records