Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x68c8…9b13 world 127 markets active 3h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$147 (-3%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$261
7 days−$261
14 days−$290
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$259
other 18% −$455
politics 14% −$21
economics 11% −$6
crypto 10% −$8
culture 3% +$58
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 50% -21.3%
≤30d 10 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 40% -11.3%
≤90d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 48% -13.2%
all 126 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 40% -12.4%
10% -19.1% 29% -20.8%
15% -26.9% 18% -28.4%
20% -34.1% 13% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage615d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $99 +$22 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $511 −$412 -81%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $516 −$5 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $878 +$133 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $485 −$29 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $476 +$167 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $348 +$28 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $36 +$38 +108%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $77 −$6 -8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $25 +$4 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $100 +$21 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $98 +$29 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $23 +$3 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $53 −$41 -77%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 31 $33 −$31 -95%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 29 $144 −$74 -52%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $161 +$58 +36%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $60 −$42 -70%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $73 +$3 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Feb 28 $20 −$6 -28%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 28 $22 +$10 +45%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $20 +$22 +112%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $16 +$10 +63%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $76 +$37 +49%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 08 $20 +$3 +15%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jan 30 $36 +$4 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $20 −$4 -18%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Dec 22 $46 −$19 -41%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 18 $41 −$33 -81%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Oct 26 $10 +$36 +362%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 25 $36 +$16 +45%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Oct 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $5 −$2 -33%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 30 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $121 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $99 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $99 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $511 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 78¢ $511 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $516 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $517 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $466 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $456 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $485 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $495 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $412 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $412 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $309 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $309 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $305 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $74 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $231 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $66 29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $66 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $36 29d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 29d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $14 37d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 37d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $29 43d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 43d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 47d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $25 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.13 · official $118.13 (match) · 521 history records