Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:52:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68c1…a7f2
crypto · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$520 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$520 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage358d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 0 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? No 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $84 +$78 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $85 −$33 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $170 −$85 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $162 +$44 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $211 −$100 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $199 +$170 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$102 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $210 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $207 +$98 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $78 +$58 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $191 +$251 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $73 +$55 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 05 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 23 $35 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 22 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 22 $130 −$86 -66%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $100 −$31 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 20 $68 −$44 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $40 +$150 +376%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$377
world 6% −$187
other 3% +$49
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -19.2% -26.9% 44% 42% -13.3%
≤30d 36 -19.2% -26.9% 44% 42% -13.3%
≤90d 36 -19.2% -26.9% 44% 42% -13.3%
all 75 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 40% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 40% -19.5%
10% -26.4% 37% -27.2%
15% -33.5% 35% -34.3%
20% -40.0% 31% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records