Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68c1…caf8 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$460 (+2%) realized +$575 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 49L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days+$255
14 days+$163
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$6
other 46% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.7% -4.3% 29% 29% -3.1%
≤30d 35 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 31% -10.2%
≤90d 58 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 43% -6.8%
all 93 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 44% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 44% -10.3%
10% -21.8% 39% -18.9%
15% -29.3% 33% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 24% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$181 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$575
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage110d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $150 $108 −$42 (-28%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 5¢ 2¢ $121 $48 −$73 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $352 −$347 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $123 −$120 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $289 +$330 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$296 +146%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$149 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $199 +$549 +276%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $149 −$147 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $78 −$77 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $69 −$67 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $94 −$91 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $240 −$234 -97%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $102 +$231 +227%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $351 −$342 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $122 −$119 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $95 +$824 +867%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $369 +$610 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $373 +$114 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $198 −$194 -98%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $143 +$179 +125%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $140 +$251 +180%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $107 −$105 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 +$109 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $145 −$142 -98%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Qingdao Eagles Mar 26 $238 −$238 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $126 +$99 +78%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $431 −$431 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $386 +$52 +14%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $297 +$88 +30%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $143 +$155 +108%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $657 +$46 +7%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $417 +$132 +32%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $272 +$122 +45%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $227 +$245 +108%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $200 +$216 +108%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $350 +$178 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 5¢ $124 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $352 4h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $123 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $289 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 21h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $102 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $153 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $748 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $199 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $149 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $78 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $69 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 16¢ $94 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $240 4d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $333 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $69 4d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $89 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $351 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $255 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $122 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 80¢ $919 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $95 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 14¢ $78 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $369 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.68 · official $155.68 (match) · 189 history records