Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68c1…f351 world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$8
sports 19% −$11
other 19% −$1
politics 14% $0
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 60 -0.5% -9.9% 32% 2% -9.9%
all 61 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage485d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $71 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $26 −$10 -37%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $6 +$1 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $106 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $31 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $31 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.46 · official $26.46 (match) · 229 history records