Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68bf…459f other 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,795 (+11%) realized +$1,664 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%67W / 156L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$169
14 days+$269
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1,101
other 34% +$319
sports 17% +$421
crypto 1% −$21
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -32.6% -39.0% 23% 23% -13.9%
≤30d 52 -9.4% -18.0% 33% 31% -4.0%
≤90d 168 -17.9% -25.7% 26% 24% -12.4%
all 223 -7.9% -16.7% 30% 27% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 27% -0.6%
10% -24.6% 26% -10.1%
15% -31.9% 24% -18.8%
20% -38.6% 22% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$33 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$1,664
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses67 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions7
Markets (closed)223 / 230
History coverage294d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $210 $336 +$126 (+60%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $228 $230 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $111 +$107 +96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $34 +$41 +121%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$25 +242%
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1,405 +$211 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$87 +86%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $359 −$342 -95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $971 +$106 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$11 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$49 +88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$62 +503%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $200 +$224 +112%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $500 +$323 +64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $800 −$3 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$48 +465%
Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $127 +$68 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 60¢ $73 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 91¢ $35 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,617 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $1,003 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $403 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY No 1¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.93 · official $681.93 (match) · 741 history records