Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x68bf…2e66 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$22
sports 30% −$34
crypto 12% +$43
weather 8% −$22
world 7% −$13
politics 4% −$9
tech 3% +$15
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +43.3% +29.7% 47% 35% -3.9%
≤30d 17 +43.3% +29.7% 47% 35% -3.9%
≤90d 17 +43.3% +29.7% 47% 35% -3.9%
all 31 +11.5% +0.9% 42% 32% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 32% -19.3%
10% -8.7% 23% -27.1%
15% -17.6% 19% -34.1%
20% -25.6% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage288d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$5 -67%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$20 +377%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$4 -36%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 Jun 25 $4 +$18 +436%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $25 +$2 +10%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 24 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 24 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$6 -49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 23 $15 +$21 +137%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 14 $20 −$15 -76%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 14 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record? Jan 04 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 18 $10 +$2 +18%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Oct 05 $12 +$15 +127%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 12 $20 −$17 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 12? Sep 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 12 $15 +$2 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? Sep 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 BUY 18¢ $4 32h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 BUY 2¢ $5 34h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 34h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 24¢ $5 34h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 19¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL No 2¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 11¢ $6 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 43h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.95 · official $18.96 (match) · 76 history records