Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68bf…5858 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$6
politics 18% −$1
sports 15% +$4
world 9% −$2
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -11.3%
all 50 -1.0% -10.4% 26% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage256d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $34 −$2 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $16 −$7 -41%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $18 −$1 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 09 $1 +$1 +46%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 08 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $34 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 24d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $5 24d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 207d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 207d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $5 207d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 207d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 207d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 207d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 207d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 207d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 207d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $9 207d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 207d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 207d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 207d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 73¢ $15 207d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 207d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 207d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 207d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.29 · official $30.29 (match) · 207 history records