Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x68bb…0429 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,133 (+23%) realized +$1,133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$486
14 days+$499
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,009
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 62% +21.7%
≤30d 48 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 40% -4.2%
≤90d 67 +4.5% -5.4% 46% 40% +9.2%
all 67 +4.5% -5.4% 46% 40% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 40% +9.2%
10% -14.5% 39% -1.2%
15% -22.7% 34% -10.8%
20% -30.3% 30% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$42 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage84d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$6 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $308 +$108 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$112 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$95 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$177 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$63 +199%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$23 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $73 +$70 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$47 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $71 +$25 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $73 +$140 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $11 +$112 +1055%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $31 −$30 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $31 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $73 +$59 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $72 −$70 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $92 −$47 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $72 −$2 -3%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 24 $31 +$26 +83%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $11 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 19 $21 −$9 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $21 +$18 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $21 +$21 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET May 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $278 −$278 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $415 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $308 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $320 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $302 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $159 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $73 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $383 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $94 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $55 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records