Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68b7…0193
sports · 32 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 5 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? Even 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? No 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? Even 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
England vs. Costa Rica: Costa Rica O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +40%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $7 −$5 -76%
Will Barnsley FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will CD Castellón vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 $0 +43%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$4
sports 41% −$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 10m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 15m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 45¢ $0 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 35¢ $1 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $1 13h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 44¢ $0 14h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $2 19h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $3 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 86¢ $2 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL No 99¢ $2 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 25h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 41h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1 41h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $2 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $2 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 55% -4.7%
≤30d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 55% -4.7%
≤90d 27 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 52% -19.9%
all 27 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 52% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 52% -19.9%
10% -22.0% 41% -27.6%
15% -29.5% 33% -34.6%
20% -36.4% 22% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.79 · official $5.79 (match) · 62 history records