Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x68b5…3bad other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 8% +$38
economics 6% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 132 +2.6% -7.2% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage118d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $376 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $379 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $407 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $459 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $330 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $374 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $348 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $351 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $389 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $169 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $320 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $383 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $820 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 3h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 24d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $174 29d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $174 31d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $202 31d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $202 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $195 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 33d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 33d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records