Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68b4…18b8 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$6
other 9% $0
politics 4% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 30 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage460d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $63 +$4 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 −$9 -19%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $2 $0 -14%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $48 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records