Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68af…736d sports 1175 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$731 (+1%) realized +$731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%1121W / 52L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$83
14 days+$46
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$560
other 15% +$141
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.4% -19.9% 87% 0% -25.8%
≤30d 409 +3.1% -6.7% 96% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 1173 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 3% -8.6%
all 1173 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 3% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 1% -17.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1121 / 52
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1175
History coverage61d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Hardt (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Marcinko vs. Waltert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Libema Open (Doubles): Goransson/King vs Balaji/Ram Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Jurak/Rosolska vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Joshua Charlton vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Shimizu (-1.5) vs Katsumi (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Kuhar vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Fullana (-1.5) vs Genova (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 1 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Acosta vs. Conway: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 2 - 1 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Rocha vs. Broom: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Nick Hardt vs. Bruno Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Gomez vs. Ivanova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Gomez vs. Ivanova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Kicker vs. Martinez: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Jadoun (-1.5) vs Shirur (+1.5) Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Peliwo (-1.5) vs Tamm (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: D'agostino (-1.5) vs Sapic (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Boyer vs. Martineau: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Gjorcheska (-1.5) vs Kazionova (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Milovanovic (-1.5) vs Ghirardato (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Matei Florin Breazu vs Julio Cesar Porras Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
ITF Monastir: Julie Myatovic vs Ava Schueller Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Havermans (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Schuman (-1.5) vs Attig (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Hageman vs. Djokic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Arseneault (-1.5) vs Sanchez (+1.5) Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Toma vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Tian (-1.5) vs Marcinkevica (+1.5) Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Kulikova vs. Vaquero: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Nagy vs. Kelm: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
[ vs. ": Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Kivattsev vs. Obradovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Georgii Kravchenko vs. Jiri Cizek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Obradovic (-1.5) vs Kivattsev (+1.5) Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Gay vs. Gadient: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Yes 100¢ $5 20m
Set Handicap: Hardt (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5) SELL Estevez 100¢ $6 21m
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Yes 99¢ $5 23m
Set Handicap: Hardt (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5) BUY Estevez 98¢ $6 58m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 2h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $48 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $50 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $50 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $50 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $49 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $48 4h
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Waltert 93¢ $5 6h
Marcinko vs. Waltert: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $6 6h
Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) BUY Ofner 99¢ $6 6h
ITF Maanshan: Joshua Charlton vs Matthew Dellavedova SELL Matthew Dellavedova 100¢ $13 9d
ITF Maanshan: Joshua Charlton vs Matthew Dellavedova BUY Matthew Dellavedova 99¢ $13 9d
Set Handicap: Shimizu (-1.5) vs Katsumi (+1.5) BUY Shimizu 99¢ $50 9d
Kuhar vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 9d
Set Handicap: Fullana (-1.5) vs Genova (+1.5) SELL Fullana 100¢ $20 9d
Set Handicap: Fullana (-1.5) vs Genova (+1.5) BUY Fullana 99¢ $20 9d
Kuhar vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 99¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3019 history records