Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68af…94e1 crypto 140 markets active 6h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%68W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -6.3% -15.3% 51% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 126 -6.3% -15.3% 51% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 139 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 32% -10.6%
all 139 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 32% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -10.6%
10% -25.7% 24% -19.2%
15% -32.9% 19% -27.0%
20% -39.5% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses68 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 411 history records